Not much actually happened in Europe yesterday, while the NYSE came to a halt for the July 4th holiday, but that didn't stop the European stock markets from ending with comfortable gains. The intensity of the gains varied from region to region. Paris, London and Milan also performed well, gaining about 0.8%. The Dutch AEX set a new record.

Today, Wall Street reopens with the release of a jobs report. This monthly event, often referred to as the key barometer for the US economy, is the guiding light for investors and central banks to assess the dynamics of the labor market.

The data didn't bring anything new, and the market didn’t react much after the release, with futures hovering around zero. US June non-farm payrolls rose slightly higher than expected, by 206,000, while 191,000 was expected by economists. The unemployment rate reached 4.1%, against 4.0% expected. Average hourly earnings rose3.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations. In addition, the prior job report was revised to show that non-farm payrolls only gained 218,000 last month, instead of 272,000. The data seems to confirm that the job market is resilient but isn’t overheating, and is even cooling a bit if we look at the prior report revision. It bolsters the hypothesis of a resilient economy despite a demanding monetary environment and strengthens hopes of a "soft landing".

It doesn’t really alter the prospect of a rate cut in September. The prevailing bet is that the Fed will move its main rate from the 5.50 to 5.25% range to the 5.25 to 5% range, with traders giving a 75% chance of it happening.

While equity markets are holding up rather well, this isn’t the case for another risky asset, bitcoin. On the contrary, it is about to close its fourth consecutive week of decline. Part of this downturn is linked to a crazy story. That of the hacking ten years ago of a former cryptocurrency platform, which today has to redistribute 15% of the stolen bitcoins to its aggrieved customers. Normally, this is a simple matter, but when the value of the asset to be reimbursed has soared by around 2000% in ten years, it becomes much trickier. In this context, market participants are inevitably afraid of major sell-offs as bitcoins are returned to their lucky investors, proving that the "Buy and Hold" strategy still has a long way to go.

In Asia Pacific, Japan ends the week cautiously with a sequence of profit-taking moves. The Nikkei ended flat. The Hang Seng is down 1.3% in Hong Kong. Elsewhere, South Korea advanced by 1.3%, while Australia lost 0.1%. European indices are bullish.

Economic highlights:

US June employment data is today’s main indicator. See the full macro agenda here. 

The dollar is down 0.1% to EUR 0.9239 and 0.3% to GBP 0.7817. The ounce of gold has risen to USD 2,367. Oil stabilizes, with North Sea Brent at USD 87.19 a barrel and US light crude WTI at USD 83.35. The yield on 10-year US debt falls to 4.35%. Bitcoin trades at USD 55,400.

In corporate news:

  • Tesla- Several state-owned enterprises in Shanghai, China's financial center, have recently purchased Model Y vehicles from Tesla, according to a statement issued by local authorities on Friday. This is the first time that Tesla vehicles have been eligible for public purchase in China. In addition, the environmental authorities in the German state of Brandenburg, where Tesla has built a gigafactory, have approved the company's request to expand the Gruenheide plant, thereby removing an obstacle to its growth plans. Tesla shares gain 1.7% in premarket trading after hitting their highest level since early January on Wednesday.
  • Macy's climbs 2.6% in premarket trading, as Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management raise their offer to buy the department store chain to around $6.9 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing sources close to the matter.
  • KKR and Francisco Partners are in the running to acquire Infrastructure, a US education software provider with a market capitalization of $3.4 billion, sources familiar with the matter reported on Wednesday.
  • Niu technologies jumped 5.5% in premarket trading, as the electric scooter specialist reported 256,162 sales in the second quarter, compared with 211,996 units a year ago.

Analyst recommendations:

  • Tesla, Inc.: China Renaissance Research upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from USD 151.31 to USD 282.13.
  • The Sherwin-Williams Company: Baptista Research downgrades to hold from underperform with a price target reduced from USD 336.30 to USD 336.10.
  • Applovin Corporation: CITIC Securities Co Ltd initiates a Buy recommendation with a target price of USD 105.
  • Constellation Brands, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 310 to USD 311.
  • Moody's Corporation: Morgan Stanley maintains its market weight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 374 to USD 392.
  • Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.: Baptista Research maintains its hold recommendation with a price target reduced from 235 to USD 203.40.
  • Quest Diagnostics Incorporated: Baird maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from USD 145 to USD 153.
  • S&P Global, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 500 to USD 510.
  • Stellantis N.v.: DZ Bank AG Research maintains its sell recommendation with a price target reduced from 22 to EUR 19.
  • Lloyds Banking Group Plc: BNP Paribas Exane upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from GBX 64 to GBX 72.
  • Softcat Plc: Jefferies downgrades to underperform from buy with a price target reduced from GBX 1950 to GBX 1490.
  • Spirax-Sarco Engineering Plc: BNP Paribas Exane upgrades to neutral from underperform with a target price of GBP 83.
  • Canadian Natural Resources Limited: TPH&Co. maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from 115 to CAD 58.